Data from DPH Update 8/14/20
The Georgia DPH Daily Status Report is updated daily at 3pm, and my site is updated later.

Today’s Highlights:

• I’m less focused on daily new cases at the state-wide level right now, because with expanded testing and contact tracing, we’re finding more cases in younger people and more asymptomatic cases. We’re also seeing more localized outbreaks that aren’t well represented by a state-wide numbers. Read more about this shift.
• Note that the additions to cases and deaths listed above are net changes from yesterday, which may not match what DPH shows under the Reported Today section of their site. Read more on this discrepancy.
• Today’s testing and cases were below average. Our % positive today on electronically reported PCR tests was 10.9%. Our 7-day % positive is down to 9.2% (vs 11.7% a week ago).
• We had 35 additional deaths reported today. 1 death was removed from May, 3 were added in July, and 33 were in August. Deaths by date of death have peaked for now at an average of 48 deaths/day on July 27. Our 7-day average of reported deaths is down from yesterday to 65.
• The number of current hospitalizations of COVID + patients is down by 116 today, and the number of patients under investigation for COVID (PUI) is down by 100. These are huge drops, and very good news after a bit of a plateau early this week. Some regions are definitely declining more clearly than others. View current hospitalizations by region (select the region from the drop-down in the top right corner).

County/Regional Updates:

• Biggest case increases today (50+ cases): Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Bibb*, Richmond*, Chatham, Hall, Clayton, Cherokee, Carroll*, Muscogee, Floyd*, Columbia, Houston, Forsyth, and Henry
• Additional counties of note with highest increases per 100K (20-49 cases, 50+ cases per 100K): Upson, Appling, Chattooga, Toombs, Lee, Tattnall, Coffee, and Polk
• The Non-GA/Unknown State category lost 92 cases and gained 1 death today. GA DPH has said this category “represents Non-Georgia residents and cases with unknown residence and may include in- and out-of-state cases.” There is also an Unknown category, which now includes 2,765 total cases, and it lost 18 cases today and 1 death. (Case or death counts may go down when cases are shifted to specific counties, or when duplicates or other incorrect entries are found.)
• NOTE: I did not update these regional lists today because I am in the process of replacing them with specific counties of concern. In the meantime, for county-specific data, please see my COVID-19 Maps page.
• Regions of Concern: We have a few different regional outbreaks that are growing now, and a few others that may be showing signs of slowing:
  • Augusta area (Richmond and Columbia counties) – There are a lot of recent cases being added in and around the Augusta area.
  • Southern Georgia – Lowndes (Valdosta) is starting to improve, but other counties bordering Florida are still seeing recent case growth.
  • Central Georgia – Some of the smaller counties in middle/central Georgia are seeing recent case increases, notably Bleckley County.
  • West Georgia (Polk, Haralson, Carroll, Heard) – These counties are experiencing recent increase in cases, especially Haralson.
  • North Georgia (including Gilmer, Pickens, Union, White, Towns) – Many counties in North Georgia are seeing high cases on recent days.
  • SE Georgia – Some counties in this area are seeing high cases in recent days, including Laurens, Treutlen, Toombs, Ben Hill)
• Regions where case growth may be slowing:
  • Coastal Georgia – Glynn and Chatham counties have seen cases decline and deaths rise, and nearby counties are starting to see case growth slow.
  • Northwest Georgia (Whitfield, Gordon, Bartow)
  • Athens / Clarke County
• Regions where cases are now declining:
  • West Central Georgia (LaGrange, Columbus) – This outbreak started earlier than some others and is now showing signs of improvement.
  • Metro Atlanta – It looks like cases have peaked in many metro counties. Unfortunately, we are now seeing increases in deaths in the metro counties.
• The Georgia DPH Daily Status Report has been recently updated with a better maps showing cases reported in the past 2 weeks and graphs that allow you to see your county’s changes by report date or date of event. Some very nice improvements, and I encourage everyone to go check it out.
• For more local information, see my list of resources for Local/Regional COVID Data.

Testing Percentages

As of today, our overall positive test percent is 10.8% (for viral/PCR tests that are electronically reported), and our % positive over the last 7 days is 9.2% (vs 11.7% a week ago). Our 7-day % positive is clearly trending downward. See more cases and testing graphs.

It will be good if we can get % positive to stay below 10%. Ideally, we’d like the percent positive number to be below 5% to ensure that we are testing widely enough to identify COVID cases in our state and local communities. Lots of free testing events and locations are now available across the state, the state is encouraging people to get tested. (How to get tested for COVID in Georgia.)

% Increase in Cases

Since late March, you can see that the daily average of increase dropped significantly, from over 20% increase per day to below 2% per day. It crept up over 3% in early to mid July with the huge increase in testing and confirmed cases, but has been back down under 3% for over two weeks now, and just crossed back under 2% per day.

From the daily growth rate, you can calculate a doubling time. As of today, our doubling time for cases is at 47 days. This is significantly longer than it was a few weeks ago.

For local case change trends, I added county-level maps to show where cases are increasing or decreasing in the past week as compared to the previous week.

Deaths

Actual deaths by date of death initially peaked in mid-April (at an average of 44 deaths/day) and then dropped significantly, but are now trending up again. This rise is deaths can be attributed to the recent spikes across Georgia, especially in Metro Atlanta, other regional hot spots, as well as among Non-Georgia residents. Currently, we’re at an average high of 48 deaths/day on July 27. Learn more about COVID deaths in Georgia.

Deaths per month are listed below. We saw a significant drop in deaths (by date of death) in the month of June, but July has exceeded June deaths due to the recent outbreaks. (Note that these numbers are subject to change as older deaths can be added at any time – although generally the older months should change very little at this point.)

• March: 237 deaths
• April: 1186 deaths
• May: 949 deaths (1 removed today)
• June: 605 deaths
• July (so far): 1162 deaths (3 added today)
• August (so far): 434 deaths (33 added today)

As of August 12, counties with the most recent deaths (10 or more over the past 10 by date of death) are Fulton (20), Glynn (18), Cobb (18), Gwinnett (16), Chatham (16), Laurens (13), and Hall (10). Other counties with 5 or more recent deaths include: Houston, Muscogee, Newton, Non-GA Residents, Richmond, Wayne, Decatur, and Ware.

On August 14, counties that reported the most deaths were Bibb (4) and DeKalb (3), followed by Clarke, Muscogee, Glynn, Rockdale, and Cobb. This is by date of report – these deaths did not occur in the past 24 hours.

IMPORTANT: The last two weeks of the graph of deaths by date of death are always incomplete as death reports are still coming in, with the most recent dates being the most incomplete. Deaths for recent dates WILL INCREASE over time.

NOTE: The spike in reported deaths in mid-June was due to an unusual reporting delay where over 100 much older deaths were all reported June 9-13.

Current Hospitalizations

GEMA publishes hospitalization data in Georgia – it is not on the DPH site. I created a separate page to track and review hospitalization data in more detail, but will also share the current hospitalization data here. Learn more about current Hospitalizations in Georgia.

NOTE: Additional information about hospital capacity and ventilator usage is published by GEMA later in the day than the rest of the DPH metrics.

Weekly Overview

I put together a weekly page with more in-depth analysis of high-level trends over the past several weeks.

Weekly Overview (Updated for week ending August 8)