Weekly Testing Data

PCR & Antigen Cases Spring/Summer 2021

Note that I have switched to reporting Total Tests Reported (via ELR), which means PCR and Antigen testing combined.

Week Ending	Confirmed Cases (PCR Positives)	Antigen Cases	Total Cases	Total Tests Reported	% Positive PCR Tests (via ELR)
Mar. 6	10,424**	7,167**	17,591**	245,885	5.8%
Mar. 13	7,299	3,890**	11,189**	202,428	5.3%
Mar. 20	7,555	3,612	11,167	186,930	5.1%
Mar. 27	6,608	3,688	10,296	185,863	5.2%
Apr. 3	6,327	2,923	9,250	168,985	4.9%
Apr. 10	6,226	2,794	9,020	178,449	4.9%
Apr. 17	6,751	3,849	10,600	184,167	5.7%
Apr. 24	6,591	2,961	9,552	172,289	5.5%
May 1	6,082	2,553	8,635	191,633***	4.4%***
May 8	5,033	2,810****	7,843	172,860****	4.7%
May 15	4,024	1,718	5,742	156,229	3.8%
May 22	3,223	1,319	4,542	136,615	3.2%
May 29	2,758	1,151	3,729	132,955	2.9%
June 5	1,770	741	2,511	105,733	2.3%
June 12	1,812	801	2,613	119,831	1.8%

*** On May 1, over 19K PCR tests were dumped in DeKalb County, but positivity was very low at 1.8%, and it did not result in an unusual number of new cases. (perhaps the cases were already reported?). See my Twitter thread with more info.
****On May 2, almost 13K antigen tests were dumped in DeKalb County, which resulted in 449 “new” antigen cases in DeKalb. This DeKalb antigen dump was a third of the total cases reported in Georgia on May 2. These cases were not all new – 242 of the antigen cases reported in DeKalb on May 2 were more than 2 weeks old.

PCR & Antigen Cases Fall/Winter 2020

Week Ending	Confirmed Cases (PCR Positives)	Antigen Cases	Total Cases	Reported PCR Tests	% Positive PCR Tests (via ELR)
Oct. 31	11,185	2,595*	13,780	136,572	7.5%
Nov. 7	11,035	2,743*	13,778	152,588	6.9%
Nov. 14	13,172	5,111**	18,283	150,669	8.0%
Nov. 21	17,438**	6,461**	23,899	220,203	7.7%
Nov. 28	16,501	4,259	20,760	202,882	8.0%
Dec. 5	23,081	8,726	31,807	177,176	11.9%
Dec. 12	29,717	8,952	38,669	230,507	12.6%
Dec. 19	32,767	11,493	44,260	244,342	13.6%
Dec. 26	36,257	10,231	46,488	277,425	14.0%
Jan. 2	41,241	15,093	56,334	218,514	19.1%
Jan. 9	47,205	16,525	63,730	195,483**	19.1%
Jan. 16	45,790	15,021	60,811	255,229	17.5%
Jan. 23	39,328	13,167	52,495	286,770	15.0%
Jan. 30	32,545	11,155	43,700	250,572	14.0%
Feb. 6	22,958	8,586	31,544	203,535	11.9%
Feb. 13	19,245	6,161	25,406	200,371	10.3%
Feb. 20	14,279	6,660	20,939	190,562**	8.7%**
Feb. 27	13,624**	6,816**	20,440**	162,484	7.5%

* Antigen cases for the first two weeks are the net change in total antigen positive cases from Friday to Friday (10/23 – 10/30 and 10/30 – 11/6), which is the time period used on the the County Indicator Reports before antigen positive cases started being reported daily, beginning 11/3. All other weekly totals use the net change from Saturday to Saturday, which is how my weekly reports are always calculated.

** Recent Data Dumps

The state is working to get providers (like urgent care networks) reporting on a consistent basis instead of in large batches. However, data dumps do occur and can inflate weekly numbers.

• During the week of 3/13, the data dumping from previous weeks slowed down, but there were still over 1,000 old antigen cases reported and over 1,000 old PCR cases reported.
• During the week of 3/6, it appears that the addition of old confirmed (PCR) cases has stopped, but antigen cases are still being dumped in. It slowed by the end of the week, but has not stopped entirely.
• On 2/23, old cases, particularly from Dec 2020 and Jan 2021 started being reported, causing an artificial increase in daily cases by about 20-25% daily for several days in a row. (As of 2/28, this daily case dumping is still occurring.) It is possible these cases are coming from the dump of old tests reported on 2/18.
• On 2/18, there was a got a huge dump of old test data (est. ~25K old tests), but without an equivalent large dump of cases. As a result, I removed this day’s data entirely from the weekly test positivity calculation. Reported testing is artificially high for this week.
• On 11/21, there was a large data dump of antigen positive cases from the past 2 weeks.
• On 11/17, there was a huge dump of PCR tests and confirmed cases from the previous 2 weeks.
• On 11/10, there was a data dump of around 1000 antigen cases from October.
• On 1/6/21 and 1/8/21, there were large dumps of non-ELR cases, so testing this week is underreported by over 50K tests. On 1/6, over 800 of the new cases were prior to October.
• On 2/5-2/7, there was a data dump of old tests in Clayton County, artificially increasing their case rates.

PCR Testing & Cases: June – October

Week Ending	New Cases	Reported PCR Tests	% Positive PCR Tests (via ELR)
June 6	5,028	68,019	4.3% (est.)
June 13	5,442	76,823	6.6%
June 20	7,008	88,908	7.7%
June 27	11,176	101,225	10.4%
July 4	18,334	136,546	12.3%
July 11	21,082	138,514	13.2%
July 18	25,471	166,933	14.2%
July 25	25,316	176,034	13.2%
August 1	24,824	188,245	12.6%
August 8	23,415	201,881	11.0%
August 15	21,741	190,100	9.0%
August 22	17,054	161,104	9.3%
August 29	15,536	163,009	8.5%***
Sept. 5	13,790	148,550	8.7%
Sept. 12	11,357	123,528	7.7%
Sept. 19	12,116	151,132	6.7%***
Sept. 26	8,852	136,966	6.3%***
Oct. 3	8,205	129,026	5.7%***
Oct. 10	8,191	131,178	5.4%
Oct. 17	9,115	148,109	5.6%
Oct. 24	10,221	145,442	6.7%

% Positive Methodology

Starting with the week ending June 6, we know the number of PCR and antibody tests without estimating because DPH began providing total viral tests and antibody tests daily. However, we learned on June 2 that testing totals only include tests that are reported electronically to DPH. Some cases are reported to GA DPH outside of the electronic reporting system via fax/email/phone, and they don’t know how many total tests were done to identify those cases. As a result, I now calculate % positive from electronically reported testing numbers only.

NOTE: The % positive for the week of June 6 is an estimate because we don’t have electronic reporting data for the full week.

*** Adjusted % Positive Due to Data Dump

• Data dumps from labs that use the Electronic Lab Reporting system artificially inflate testing, cases, and % positive numbers by reporting a backlog of old test data all at once.
• On 8/24, a very large backlog of old tests (over 20K according to one source) was reported from Navicent Health. These old labs generated over 10,000 tests and almost 800 new cases in Bibb County alone. It likely also affect numbers for nearby counties, including Baldwin, Houston, Crawford, Twiggs, Monroe, Jones, Wilkinson, and Peach. However, the majority of cases were from July or earlier.
• On 9/16-17, 9/19-9/21, and 9/30, there were large data data dumps from a NE GA lab. The backlogged tests seemed focused in four counties: Hall, Habersham, Stephens, and Union.
• Testing and case numbers for these weeks are inflated as a result of the data dump, but it’s unclear by how much. As a result, I did not adjust the case and test numbers.
  • For the week ending August 29, I excluded the data from August 24 when calculating % positive for the week.
  • For the weeks ending September 19, 26, and October 3, I excluded the test data from these four counties on the days of the data dump when calculating % positive for the week.

Spring Testing Data Prior to Antibody Tests Removed

Estimated Antibody Testing

In late May, it was discovered that GA DPH was including antibody testing in total test numbers. On May 27, they reported that 77,835 antibody tests are included in the total tests. I deducted a rough guess of the number of antibody tests that each week from April 19-May 30 might include, weighted much more heavily to later weeks, assuming that antibody testing expanded as as total test numbers surged in Georgia, in order to estimate percent positive. Even after removing estimated antibody tests, there were still huge increases in testing from May 10 – 23. Numbers in italics are based on my antibody testing estimates.

Week Ending	New Cases	PCR Tests	Antibody Tests	% Positive PCR Tests
March 28	1,859	7,031		26.4%
April 4	3,794	15,243		24.9%
April 11	5,999	25,421		23.6%
April 18	5,682	23,029		24.7%
April 25	5,375	44,270 42,056	2,214 (5%)	12.1% 12.8%
May 2	5,105	55,786 50,209	5,577 (10%)	9.2% 10.2%
May 9	4,265	60,524 52,656	7,868 (13%)	7.0% 8.1%
May 16	4,626	85,745 72,883	12,862 (15%)	5.4% 6.3%
May 23	5,030	132,468 99,352	33,116 (25%)	3.8% 5.1%
May 30	4,089	86,104 62,938	16,198 (prior to 5/27) 6,968 (after 5/27) Total: 23,166 (27%)	4.7% 6.5%

Learn More

• Understanding the GA DPH Data
• Cases & Testing Graphs
• Weekly Overview
• What’s the problem with Georgia testing numbers?
• What’s the issue with Georgia’s ELR test data?