How many people have recovered?

Georgia, like many states, doesn’t track or report recovered patients, but it’s a number that a lot of people would like to know. Of the states that do report on recovered patients, it’s often just an estimate based on the assumption that people have either recovered or died after some period of time. Georgia doesn’t do this, but we can make the same rough estimate on our own.

To make a conservative estimate of the number of recovered patients, we can assume an infection period of 3 weeks, after which people will have recovered. Some patients will recover sooner, but I don’t want to overstate recoveries, so I chose a 3 week time period to look back. The CDC says people are not infectious 10 days after the first PCR test, so even if some people haven’t fully recovered, they are no longer infectious.

This is one of those times when the cumulative DPH graph of cases over time is helpful, because we can see how many people were actually symptomatic or tested by a particular date 3 weeks ago (who may not have been added to the confirmed case count until several days later). We can also see how many deaths there are as of as of today to remove those from the count of recovered cases. Subtracting total deaths from the cases 3 weeks ago gives us a conservative estimate of presumed recoveries.

You need to find three numbers to do these calculations:

  • total cases as of today
    (posted at the top of the DPH page)
  • total deaths as of today
    (posted at the top of the DPH page)
  • total cases as of 3 weeks ago
    On the DPH graph of Cumulative Cases (by date of onset), hover over the blue line and find the date 3 weeks ago, then note the total number of cases as of that date.

These are rough estimates state-wide as of September 16:

Total Cases Today RecoveredActive Cases
299,000269,000 (90%)24,000 (8%)
Recovered = Total Cases as of 3 Weeks Ago – Total Deaths as of Today

Active Cases = Total Cases Today – Total Cases as of 3 Weeks Ago

It’s quite possible there are more recovered cases, but without more access to state data, it’s hard to know. And even then, it would still just be an estimate without actual follow-up with each identified case.

I will update the numbers in this post periodically to give people an idea of what the current numbers might be. They only are very rough estimates, so day-to-day variations aren’t as important. It just serves as a reminder that over 85% of the total number of cases you see are presumably already recovered.

Local Cases

You can also do this for your county now that the DPH graphs let you filter by county. Simply select your county by clicking it on the map, or choosing it from the drop-down arrow next to the word Georgia.

Then get the three pieces of information for your county from the graph. The total cases and deaths for your county are also listed below the graph, but you have to get the cases from 3 weeks ago by using the graph for your county, as shown below.

Or for a more visual idea of where new cases are in Georgia, I have color-coded maps of Georgia showing new cases reported in the past 2 weeks per county, which show roughly how many active cases each county has. View my Cases Per County maps.